Climate: The Implications of the IPCC Report For Islands

We are now at the precipice of a major global catastrophe that has already begun, writes Lagipoiva Cherelle Jackson, an Expert Reviewer for the InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Oceans and the Cryosphere (SROCC).

 


Over the past few days, I’ve been ruminating on the release of the InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 C. I watched the live press conference from a lecture room at the National University of Samoa, on the island of Upolu, Samoa, right at the heart of the vast Pacific Ocean. I forced my students to listen to the press conference, to watch as the co-chairs of the IPCC framing the negative in a more palatable way, so that political egos of some countries and the leanings of the high emitters were sufficiently pacified, but in a manner which did not compromise the science or alarm the public.

Having followed the discussions closely, thereafter, I was encouraged by the collective shock of my learned friends at the outcome of the Report. And dismayed that this was not already apparent to some. The science has been clear for many years. For the IPCC to come out and say “species extinction” means they have gone beyond reasonable doubt in the face of science to backup such a conclusion.

Is that what the world requires? Over 6000 references and 42,000 comments from scientists and experts to listen?

“Every extra bit of warming matters, especially since warming of 1.5°C or higher increases the risk associated with long-lasting or irreversible changes, such as the loss of some ecosystems,” said Hans-Otto Pörtner, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II.

I spoke to Pörtner last year at the IPCC Working Group II office in Bremen, Germany. After being informed that we already had incidences of mass fish kills in Vanuatu and Fiji recorded in 2016, he was concerned, because according to him, that is just the beginning – as the impacts of rising temperatures are exhibited by nature in such events.

The Report noted that coral reefs would decline by 70-90 percent with global warming of 1.5°C. This impact alone puts Pacific islands in even more vulnerable and dire circumstances. For Samoa and our Pacific island neighbors, the implications of 1.5°C or higher are already here.

 

Health

Rising temperatures, prolonged rainfall and increased frequency of flooding will create the perfect environment for water borne diseases.

Anything carried by mosquitos will multiply as breeding conditions improve and as such the rise in vector borne diseases.

Samoa saw a rise in dengue fever in 2017 coinciding with the wet-season. These impacts have increased, and will continue to rise, according to World Health Organisation (WHO). The fact health is mentioned in the IPCC SR1.5 means this is now a serious concern.

 

Fisheries

The decline in coral reef by 70-90 percent means artisanal fisheries will suffer. As such, livelihood and food sources will be affected for our coastal communities. For our families relying heavily on fisheries as a source of income, they will be hit hard and as a result will have to find alternative income sources and food sources through potentially more expensive and unhealthy means.

 

Disasters

The cost of extreme weather events on the Pacific have been well documented in the past five years with a hit on national budgets ranging from $10million to hundreds of millions. These immediately have a drastic impact on the economy as a whole and key areas such as infrastructure, health and others. Cyclone Evan had a massive impact on our economy and infrastructure that it took five years to reestablish some normality back to our road system.

Cyclone Evan, December 2012, Falefa Village on the island of Upolu, Samoa. Photo credit: Seti Afoa / Motor 1 Samoa

 

Business

The cost of climate change on the business sector will continue to rise as extreme weather events continue to occur more frequently. These costs were obvious with Cyclone Gita when Sheraton Apia was severely flooded less than a year after a multi-million dollar refurbishment. But that’s just one establishment. Small businesses suffered first and worse in some cases, especially beach fales and small suppliers.

 

Agriculture

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), climate change will greatly affect the health and productivity of crops and livestock. FAO notes that fragile ecosystems of Pacific islands will be directly affected through hazard exposure and will subsequently affect crop yields. Just think of the Fugalei and Salelologa market and how certain crops are not available for months on end after cyclones. That is a direct impact of extreme weather events on our crops.

 

Ecosystems

Rare sighting of the endangered manumea pigeon. Found only in Samoa and is the country’s national bird. Photo credit:Samoan Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment.

 

Our ecosystems will suffer as a result of temperature increases. For small vulnerable ecosystems

this is an extremely scary eventuality. Climate change can alter where species live, how they interact and the timing of biological events which could fundamentally transform current ecosystems and food webs.

A good example is the Manumea or Tooth-billed Pigeon,  feared extinct by many scientists. The last confirmed sighting was in Savaii within the past five years. The main threat, according to those who have been working towards protecting them, is the threats on their habitats.

 

Oceans

Our islands depend on oceans to survive. The impact of rising temperatures on coral reefs will continue to impact us both direct and indirectly. Food security and cultural practice will be impacted as a result. As oceans continue to be impacted by climate change, so too are the community and cultural practices that depend upon it.

These are just some of the many impacts which have already and will continue to be felt by our islands as a result of climate change. The findings  and conclusions of the Special Report by the InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change are not new. We have known these facts since the 1990s but it is unfortunate that we need over 6000 peer reviewed journal articles by leading scientists to make a case for it.

There’s no waking up that needs to be done by world leaders, as IPCC Authors stated there needs to be unprecedented action.

Samoa and many Pacific islands have demonstrated leadership in climate circles, setting the right policy direction and adjusting the way we do business to adapt.

Unfortunately for us, we are having to develop in the face of mounting evidence that the problem will continue to worsen.

Do not – by any measure of the imagination – be lulled into a false sense of security by the wording of the IPCC Summary for Policymakers where 1.5 degrees is compared to 2 degrees, as contrasting scenarios.

Unfortunately for tiny islands like ours – mere dot on the maps – we don’t have much carbon footprint or indeed the geographical presence to make a big difference. One can only hope that our high emitting counterparts, both in developed and developing nations, change the way they do business to shift what is already a pretty sad picture for all of us.

One thing is for sure though – we, in the Pacific, hold a major moral high ground that even as our friends in Tuvalu, Marshall Islands and Tokelau descend into the vast Pacific ocean –  at least, at the very least, we have that. Integrity, which, in the face of current political climate, is at least something to stand tall for.

 


Photo credit at top of column: Office of the Pacific Ocean Commissioner.


 

Lagipoiva Cherelle Jackson

From the island of Savai'i in Samoa, Lagipoiva Cherelle Jackson works in oceans and climate policy in the Pacific region. She is currently pursuing PhD on oceans and climate change as it relates to issues of state sovereignty at the National University of Samoa.

 

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